Pixel Forge Plays

We don't know yet whether we have an edge. We're finding out in public. Every pick posted before the game. Every result tracked.

Join the WaitlistFounding rate locked, price not set yet Visit Website Join Discord Follow on X The No BS Standard

Opening Day: September 5, 2026

Opening Day: September 5, 2026. The first pond is MLB totals. We are collecting NFL market data now. Nothing is published yet.
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ALL POSTED PICKS Public record
Posted:
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Rules-qualified (13%+):
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The v6 and v7 cards below are subsets of these same posted picks, split at the July 14 model cutover — not separate books. Nothing is excluded from the Posted number above.
MODEL v7.0 — Updated Jul 14, 2026. Edge capped at 15% (high-edge picks shadow-tracked, not posted). Surface Advantage driver retired. SP Mismatch parked pending more data. Nothing deleted — the full v6 record is frozen below and in our public repo.
v7 — LIVE RECORD (since Jul 14, 2026)
v7 went live during the All-Star break. First picks resolve when MLB resumes Jul 16 (second half).
v7 only: picks with TimestampUTC after cutover 2026-07-14T20:30:00Z (exclusive — matches bot Test-IsV6Pick: ≤ cutover = v6).
Every pick posted pre-game. Every result tracked. No deletions. No revisionist history.
v6 FINAL RECORD (Jun 10 – Jul 14, 2026) — FROZEN
Frozen permanently at cutover. Proof: git commit 1b4b9d7e — verify in the public repo history.
Note: the frozen rules-qualified record above includes one boundary pick that the current filter classifies as calibration rather than rules-qualified, a difference of one loss. The snapshot is left exactly as committed.

Beating the close

Loading CLV…

Positive CLV means the market moved toward our number AFTER we posted. It's the one scorecard that can't be faked.

v7 CLV: -- (first v7 picks resolve Jul 16)
RECENT PICKS All-time (v6+v7) (click headers to sort - newest first by default)
DATESPORTGAMETYPE PICKGAME TIME (MT)LEAD TIMEODDSBOOK EDGE %CONFEDGE DRIVER RESULTCLV (PTS)
Every posted pick — rules-qualified (13%+) and all-time/calibration — from live dashboard data. Includes Id and TimestampUTC for cross-reference.
BEST PICK (HIGHEST EDGE WIN) All-time (v6+v7)
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BIGGEST EDGE (ANY RESULT) All-time (v6+v7)
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EDGE % OVER TIME (recent picks) All-time (v6+v7)
BREAKDOWN BY SPORT & MARKET All-time (v6+v7)

BANKROLL GROWTH SIMULATOR All-time (v6+v7) ▸

Simulation based on historical rules-qualified performance (13%+ edge picks only). All-time (v6+v7). Past results do not guarantee future returns. For entertainment/planning purposes only.
13%+
1%
100 bets
Small sample — treat this projection with caution
Ending Bankroll: --
Total Growth: --
Peak Bankroll: --
THE FULL MODEL — SHADOW TRACKING — … ▸

We track every bet v7 considers, not just what we post. Every decided bet is published in the ledger below. A second model runs in shadow too. It is not racing in Season 1, and its picks carry their own label in the ledger file. The rules are in The No BS Standard.

Edge-band performance All-time (shadow + posted)

EDGE BAND N W-L WIN % MKT IMPLIED %

This data is why v7 caps posted picks at 15% edge — our model's highest-confidence picks were its worst performers. We show this so you can check our reasoning.

Picks v7 declined to post — tracked anyway

DATE MATCH EDGE DRIVER RULE RESULT
LIVE STEAM DETECTION
Real-time sharp money tracking across 6+ sportsbooks. Free public feed.
POSTEDTEAMBOOKSPINNACLEGAMEGAME TIME
Steam alerts are market observations — sharp line movement detected across books — not model picks. A steam alert does not mean the bot recommends betting that team.
HOW TO READ THIS DASHBOARD ▼
HOW IT WORKS

The Model

Every pick is generated by a quantitative model -- no gut feels, no fading public, no touts. MLB inputs include starter FIP, bullpen availability, park factors, OPS splits, platoon advantages, and weather. Tennis uses surface-weighted ELO ratings and recency, but tennis is in a labelled sandbox and is not currently posting public picks (edge gate held at 99% until the product is ready). For sports we post, the model only alerts when edge exceeds 13% versus the market consensus odds at pick time.

Why CLV

CLV (Closing Line Value) is measured after the fact -- how the line moved from our posted price to the close. Positive CLV means the market moved toward us. We track CLV on every pick because results alone lie. Edge at post time is versus the market consensus then; CLV is the after-the-fact scorecard.

Fully Transparent

Every pick is posted publicly before first pitch. Every result is tracked win or lose. Nothing is deleted. The dashboard updates after every scan cycle, several times a day. This is the whole record -- not a highlight reel.
COMING SOON
NFL Module
We are collecting NFL market data now. Nothing is published yet. If an NFL pond opens, it will appear in the standard before anything races in it.
NBA Module
Not built yet. No NBA pond has been announced. If one opens, it will appear in the standard before anything races in it.
Opening Day: September 5, 2026
The first pond is MLB totals. The field is one model, v7, and it is published before the race. Full public record. No bullshit.
Join the Founding Waitlist → pixelforgeplays.com
Pricing is not set yet. We only charge for a pond where a model has cleared a published gate, and we never charge for an empty pond. Everyone on the waitlist gets the founding rate and keeps it. Questions: support.pixelforgeplays@gmail.com
FAQ
Is this gambling advice?
No. Pixel Forge Plays identifies statistical edges using quantitative models. All picks are for informational purposes only. Gamble responsibly.
How do I follow picks?
Follow @PixelForgePlays on X for real-time alerts. Discord is live - link in the hero.
When do you launch paid subscriptions?
When a model clears its pond's gate. That may be months away, and it may not happen in Season 1. Opening Day is September 5, 2026 - that is when the race starts, not when anything goes on sale. Join the founding waitlist at pixelforgeplays.com.
What sports do you cover?
MLB is the live public feed, and MLB totals is the Season 1 pond; tennis is sandboxed and not posting; we are collecting NFL market data now and nothing is published yet; NBA is not built and no NBA pond has been announced. Waitlist: pixelforgeplays.com.
How is edge calculated?
Edge is our model's probability minus the market's probability. The market number is a consensus: we take every book quoting both sides, remove the vig from each one, average them, and weight Pinnacle double. That consensus is what edge is measured against.

The odds shown next to a pick are the actual price at a single book, with the vig still in. So you cannot subtract the two numbers on the page and get the edge back. They are measuring against different things on purpose. The consensus is the fairer benchmark for judging the model. The book price is what you would actually bet.
Tracking started June 10, 2026 | Every decided bet published | Posted pre-game Last updated: -- @PixelForgePlays on X Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem: call 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or visit ncpgambling.org.