How to test a betting model

A backtest is a trial on old games.

Overfitting means the rule was adjusted until that old trial looked good.

The same rule can miss on games it has not seen.

Freeze the rule first

Freeze the file before the first game.

You get a fingerprint. Freeze your rule.

Later, check the file against that fingerprint. Check a reveal.

If the file changed, the check fails.

Post picks before the game

Post every pick in public before the game starts.

You can race your picks on X.

Or get graded.

Grade against the closing line

The closing line is the last price before the game starts.

A results record is not the grade.

The grade is whether the posted price beat the close.

Grade your bets, or read what closing line value is.

See it done

Our rules are on the lab dashboard.

Outside models we grade are on The Board.