Luck or skill?
Results swing even when the prices stay the same.
That swing is variance.
The test
The test asks how often a bettor with no edge would post this record or a better one.
Enter a record
- Record
- Break-even win rate
- Observed win rate
- Profit
- Picks needed
How many bets
Fifty bets and five hundred bets do not mean the same thing.
| Record | Bets | No-edge share | Picks before luck is ruled out |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-20 | 50 | 17.4% | about 121 |
| 55-45 | 100 | 33.6% | about 990 |
| 275-225 | 500 | 13.0% | about 990 |
The 100-bet row and the 500-bet row are the same rate of results.
The test still wants about 990 bets before it rules luck out.
A longer record is further along. It is not a new rate.
The same calculator, by itself, is Is this record luck?
Why the close shows up sooner
The closing line is the last price before the game starts.
Vig is the bookmaker's cut, built into that price.
CLV is the gap between your price and the fair closing price, in points. It is a number on each bet.
A results record needs many more bets before this test says much.
Read what closing line value is.
What this test cannot tell you
It does not say the next bets will look like these.
It does not say the prices beat the close.
A record can pass this test and still have poor prices.
Check a record someone is selling with how to check a capper.
Or paste the bets into Grade your bets.